Probability

The pathway

Placement first. Then six levels, mastered in order.

A short placement quiz finds the level where probability genuinely starts for your child. From there, each level ends in a mastery quiz, passed before the next level opens.

1. Placement quiz

   Finds the starting level. No assumptions from age or school year.

2. Level 1

   Year 5 standard

   The language of chance and first probability experiments recorded as fractions.

   • —Use the terms certain, likely, unlikely and impossible, and order events by likelihood
   • —Conduct simple probability experiments and record outcomes
   • —Express probability as fractions (NESA MA3-CHAN-01)

3. Level 2

   Year 6 standard

   Theoretical versus experimental probability: predicting outcomes and testing predictions.

   • —Express and compare probabilities as fractions
   • —Distinguish theoretical from experimental probability
   • —Compare observed and expected frequencies of outcomes (NESA MA3-CHAN-02)

4. Level 3

   Year 7 standard

   Calculating theoretical probability for single-step experiments with equally likely outcomes.

   • —Calculate theoretical probability for single-step experiments (NESA MA4-PRO-01)
   • —Express probability as fractions and decimals
   • —Conduct probability experiments and compare results with predictions

5. Level 4

   Year 8 standard

   Theoretical and experimental probability compared systematically across chance experiments.

   • —Calculate theoretical probability and compare with experimental results
   • —Calculate probabilities for multi-step chance experiments using tree diagrams (NESA MA4-PRO-02)
   • —Conduct and analyse chance experiments

6. Level 5

   Year 9 standard

   Sample spaces and probability investigations comparing experimental and theoretical results.

   • —List sample spaces and calculate theoretical probabilities
   • —Compare experimental and theoretical probability through investigations
   • —Calculate relative frequencies (NESA MA5-PRO-01)

7. Level 6

   Year 10 standard

   Combined events: multi-stage probability with sample spaces and justified results.

   • —Calculate probabilities for combined events
   • —Construct sample spaces and justify probability results
   • —Solve problems involving counting techniques and probability (NESA MA5-PRO-02)

All topics and levels are aligned to the NSW Mathematics K–10 Syllabus (NESA). Level 1 corresponds to the Year 5 standard and Level 6 to the Year 10 standard, spanning Stages 3 to 5 of the NSW curriculum.